{"id":179,"date":"2020-01-26T18:22:55","date_gmt":"2020-01-26T18:22:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/?p=179"},"modified":"2024-11-10T00:04:25","modified_gmt":"2024-11-10T00:04:25","slug":"a-cautionary-paper-on-complex-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/2020\/01\/26\/a-cautionary-paper-on-complex-models\/","title":{"rendered":"A Cautionary Paper on Complex Models"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Thanks to <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Paul Barrett (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pbarrett.net\/\" target=\"_blank\">Paul Barrett<\/a> for alerting us to this newly published paper: Saylors, R., &amp; Trafimow, D. (2020). <em>Why the increasing use of complex causal models is a problem: On the danger sophisticated theoretical narratives pose to truth. <strong>Organizational Research Methods<\/strong><\/em><strong> <\/strong>(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1094428119893452  (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1094428119893452 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1094428119893452 <\/a>), In Press, , 1-14. [paywall]<br><br>As pointed out by the authors, &#8220;As use of complex models increases, the joint probability a published model is true decreases.&#8221; <br>The paper comes with a calculator to compute said probability:  <br><a href=\"https:\/\/practiceoftheory.weebly.com\/a-causal-models-probability-of-being-true.html\">https:\/\/practiceoftheory.weebly.com\/a-causal-models-probability-of-being-true.html<\/a> <br><br>An analogous concern in OOM is that as a path model increases in complexity, fewer and fewer individuals will be traceable through the model. It is easy to imagine a complex path model in which not a single person can be accurately traced through all of the links. What use would such a model be as an explication of causes and effects? Of course, this information can only be known if the researcher attempts to perform such person-centered analyses. <br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thanks to Paul Barrett for alerting us to this newly published paper: Saylors, R., &amp; Trafimow, D. (2020). Why the increasing use of complex causal models is a problem: On the danger sophisticated theoretical narratives pose to truth. Organizational Research Methods (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1094428119893452 ), In Press, , 1-14. [paywall] As pointed out by the authors, &#8220;As &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/2020\/01\/26\/a-cautionary-paper-on-complex-models\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A Cautionary Paper on Complex Models&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2020-posts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":182,"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179\/revisions\/182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/idiogrid.com\/OOM\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}